Job numbers out yesterday - showing a jump in the national unemployment rate to 6.6 per cent - confirm that Canada has followed the United States into a recession. But the odds are that workers here will come through the downturn of 2009 with far fewer scrapes and bruises than they did during the two previous recessions. They'll also - for a change - fare markedly better than their American counterparts.
this is apparently, along with a near death experience for his minority government, what is driving the current prime minister's cooperation for a "massive stimulus" as described in a recent cbc.ca article:
Statistics Canada said Friday the big loss was the result of a drop of 70,700 full-time jobs. That was partially offset by a rise in the number of people working part-time.
what is interesting to note, when looking at the actual report, is that:
In December, private sector losses (-59,000) were partially offset by gains in the public sector (+21,000). Over the year, employment was up 1.4% among public sector employees, 0.6% among the self-employed, and 0.3% among private sector employees.
now when one looks at the location for the job losses, it appears that about 47% of the job losses were in alberta:
Alberta was the only province to show a large employment decline in December (-16,000), all in full-time work. With the drop in employment, the unemployment rate jumped 0.7 percentage points to 4.1% in December, still the lowest in the country.
this makes sense considering the parabolic rise in employment in alberta in correlation with the rising price of oil for the last five years. mostly, though the price in oil has risen because of a) the decline in the US peso and b) the fact that a great deal of speculation went into oil as a means of counter balancing against the falling usd rate.
now that the US is in the throes of depression-like unemployment numbers as noticed by Mish Shedlock:
When the U-6 unemployment rate rises above 12.5 in conjunction with a stock market that is down close to 50%, the CPI is negative, and nominal wages are stagnant, it's an economic depression. We are in one.
it's quite common to believe that the whole world is facing a depression. but, let's look at some facts because the truth of the matter seems to point otherwise:
1. canada, if no other country in the world, is more aware of what goes on in the US than even itself is. this allowed the country's business leaders to move in anticipation of the decline in export revenue proactively rather than spasmadically respond as has happened south of the border.
2. there was no real estate bubble in canada. this is because of two reasons; the first being that canadian banks are boring and their competitive market is small so they see little impetus to try new things out seeking every last customer as was the case in the states. the second reason is that, while there were big real estate increases, it was closer to being in proportion with the economy.
alberta, experienced the biggest rush in economy and consequently will have the rockiest roll through the correction.
3. the baby boomer retirement wave is coming as noted in the globe and mail article:
The prospect of a looming post-recession labour shortage promises to factor into employers' staffing calculations this time around.
"The whole phenomenon of an aging population will act as a brake on layoffs," predicts Desjardins Group senior economist Benoit Durocher. "Businesses will think twice before laying people off because it could be more difficult to find employees when the recovery comes."
in fact, any business leader worth their salt should be using this time to hire such talent as has come available due to other companies' stupidity.
believe me, there are still plenty of management in the world that only sees cost when they view their associates instead of value.
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